Insurance predictions for a post-COVID era

Matt Hands
by Matt Hands July 7, 2020 / No Comments

The hope shouldn’t be to return to the new normal, but rather to move forward to something better. Fewer cars on the road mean less congestion, less pollution, and maybe people seeking more active and healthier forms of transportation. If we’re working from home more, we drive less. Does that mean fewer accidents? A less harried commute? The time we always wanted for our personal aspirations, be it more time with family, exercise, or fulfilling dreams, is now available to us. 

What about our finances? compiled industry insiders’ predictions on what it might look like for the insurance market. 

Insurance industry shakeup

Insurance during COVID-19 saw companies waive fees for bounced cheques, offer payment deferrals, and eventually offer discounts and reductions on premiums for people driving less. 

In the last few years, the average car insurance rates in Ontario have increased by around 5-10% per year. Car insurance fraud and more expensive claims (due to valuable technologies like cameras and safety systems), are at the centre of the increases.

However, with fewer cars on the roads, and fewer accidents, might the average rate go down? Or will car insurance companies say they gave us money back this year and keep the steady pricing increase for years to come? 

Some drivers saw the open roads as veritable hot wheel tracks and opted to test the limits of their cars with burnouts, doughnuts, and barrel rolls. The police, however, chose to keep the streets for commuting and transportation, not for loop-de-loops, much to the dismay of the opportunistic drivers and their costly tickets and license suspensions. Their possibility of getting cheap insurance has now been stunted. 

Will these newly minted stunt drivers be the cause of our shared rate increases? More insurance claims generally leads to costlier insurance for all. 

On the property insurance side we are starting to see the impact of quarantine life. At home, we spent more time cooking for ourselves which led to more fires. While climate change didn’t get the quarantine memo and is still wreaking havoc on our houses with increasing floods, wildfires, and golf ball sized hail. 

We wanted to know what others in the industry had to say, so we asked some of our insurance broker partners for their best predictions on car, condo, tenant and house insurance as we look towards 2021.

Car insurance post-COVID

Greg Raymond, CEO of, says, “Rates were on the rise before the pandemic hit; however, most insurance companies postponed any future scheduled rate increases. [They also] provided premium rebates to consumers, and some have even temporarily lowered rates. There are fewer drivers on the road, which means fewer claims, but this trend will get reversed as soon as the world starts to re-open, and the economy recovers.

Other experts said it was difficult to tell what would happen. After refunds, capping or removing premium increases, we don’t know how the pandemic will ultimately influence the real world. While we don’t yet know the full repercussions of COVID-19 on auto insurance, Finance Minister Rod Phillips believes the pressure is on the industry to provide relief for struggling Canadians. Furthermore, the NDP wants the Ontario government to give a 50% reduction in premiums for all Ontarians for 3 months.

Sean Graham, President of Begin Insurance, feels 2021 will likely see rate reductions in auto insurance. “Many [Canadians} are working from home. Unfortunately, some are unemployed, young people are not in school, and lockdowns keep most [people] at home. The downward impact on car accidents has been dramatic and should continue into 2021. Some insurers like Aviva and CAA have already reduced rates by 10%, and others should follow suit.”

Home insurance post-COVID

Working from home has its perks, but not for the insurance industry. “With more people at home, there is greater exposure for liability and fire. Climate change keeps producing severe weather events, including water and wind catastrophes,” says Sean Graham of Begin Insurance. 

Greg Raymond from Insurance Hero echoes Graham’s sentiments, and adds that it, “may have a small impact [on rates] but that trend should get reversed once people get back to work.”

The truth is that home insurance has been underpriced for a long time. If claims, much like the tides, keep rising, without the political intervention to limit rate increases, expect rates to climb. 

We can’t stress enough – read your policy and understand your risks. For instance, flood insurance isn’t as comprehensive as you think. A typical home insurance policy covers you for a burst pipe. It likely does not cover you for a sewer backup, snowmelt, or rising bodies of water entering into your home. You can protect yourself with a sewer backup valve, waterproofing your home, and diverting water away with upgraded eavestroughs. But even with the mechanical upgrades, you might want to think about adding water protection endorsements to your policy for these risks, especially if you live near water. Don’t expect your insurer to pay, if you’re not correctly insured. 

Will shopping habits change for insurance after the pandemic?

On a personal note, I know friends that have waited over 2 hours on the phone to get their COVID car insurance discount. Access to money has been another struggle with lineups at banks. In fact, one bank currently has no open branches, and their phone wait time is between 1-2 hours, and those lines are open 24 hours a day. To no one’s surprise, I have shifted more of my shopping online – groceries, alcohol, clothing, and home decor, just to name a few. But, what about insurance? Is the industry even set up to service the rise in digital demand in the commerce space?

Greg Raymond of Insurance Hero says, “consumers that previously didn’t shop for anything online were now forced to because of the pandemic. These new digital consumers won’t be going back to their old ways of doing business. Many brokers and insurance providers will need to adapt.

Sean Graham of Begin Insurance believes Canadians will “seek out new methods for interactions with all of their professional services.” He calls out real estate, mortgages, banking, accounting, lawyers, and insurance, to name a few. He believes we’ll have fewer face to face interactions, and digitally servicing a client will be a requirement. He says we’ll see a rapid transformation in these industries, and businesses will need to learn to adapt to new consumer demands. “New companies, platforms, and ways of doing business will certainly emerge as the wave of the future.” 

Insurance products and the changing economy

Shopping habits may change, but If you’re looking to Airbnb your home, only a select few providers offer insurance. Driving for Uber? Whether delivering passengers or food, you need to understand your coverage, and again, few providers will protect you. The economy is changing, the insurance industry needs to adapt. If car insurance rates rise, we may see a rapid adoption to usage based insurance.

The bottom line

We can only speculate if rates will go up or down, but 2021 is sure to be a hopeful, yet potentially volatile year. As more data from climate-related disasters come in, and more sophisticated models arise, many believe home insurance premiums will spike. All the brokers we asked did agree on one thing – shopping for a home or car insurance quote online will be the new normal, or rather, the move forward.