5 financial trend forecasts for 2026

Headline inflation has stabilized heading into 2026, offering some relief to Canadian households after several difficult years. Consumer prices ended 2025 growing at an annual rate of 2.2%, a sign that earlier interest rate cuts are continuing to work their way through the economy.

However, the slowdown has not been felt evenly. Grocery prices remain a major pressure point for households, rising well above the pace of overall inflation. According to Statistics Canada, food purchased from stores increased 4.7% year over year in November, the fastest pace since late 2023. Staples such as fresh fruit, prepared foods, beef, and coffee continue to drive higher grocery bills, reflecting ongoing supply chain pressures tied to global trade disruptions.

At the same time, other major contributors to inflation are easing. Shelter costs are growing more slowly, and mortgage interest costs are no longer a key driver of price increases after falling sharply from their 2023 peak. This shift has helped bring overall inflation back toward target, even as food prices remain elevated.

For Canadians, this means inflation is no longer accelerating, but affordability challenges have not disappeared. In 2026, households are likely to keep prioritizing value, comparison shopping, and rewards on everyday spending, particularly at the grocery store, as they adjust to a new normal of slower inflation but higher baseline prices.

Read more: Canadian CPI remains unchanged at 2.2% in November

Canada’s housing market has experienced plenty of upheaval in recent years, from the sizzling demand and record-low interest rates that defined the 2021 to 2022 pandemic era, to the sharp slowdown that followed, as borrowing costs climbed between 2023 and 2024.

This year was widely expected to mark a recovery, as the latter half of 2024 brought interest rate relief along with new down payment policies aimed at easing entry into the market for first-time buyers. That rebound never fully materialized. Tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump added a layer of economic uncertainty, keeping many buyers on the sidelines. While additional rate cuts in late 2025 encouraged some activity, overall home sales still lagged 2024 levels by 11%, according to November data from the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Now that the Bank of Canada has signalled it is entering a prolonged rate hold, housing conditions are unlikely to shift dramatically in 2026. That said, stability itself is a meaningful change. Buyers who need to move will face fewer surprises, and mortgage shoppers are seeing the lowest rates available since the summer of 2022. With economic uncertainty more clearly priced in, affordability conditions are more predictable heading into the new year.

• Read more: What can mortgage borrowers expect in 2026?

With inflation holding close to target, the Bank of Canada has entered a prolonged rate hold that is expected to carry through much of 2026. For Canadians, this marks a shift away from frequent rate changes and toward a more predictable financial environment.

Borrowers can expect loan payments to remain steady in the coming year. Interest rates on products tied to prime, such as personal loans, lines of credit, HELOCs, and car loans, are unlikely to change while the rate hold remains in place. That stability makes it easier for households to plan their cash flow, even if borrowing costs remain higher than pre-pandemic norms.

For savers and investors, the rate hold sets clearer expectations. Canadians holding GICs can expect their returns to stay consistent until maturity, while those shopping for new GICs in 2026 are likely to see similar rates throughout the year rather than the rapid increases or drops seen in recent cycles. High-interest savings accounts are also expected to deliver stable, if unexciting, returns, pushing some investors to look beyond cash products in search of higher growth.

With borrowing costs no longer moving lower, some Canadians may focus less on waiting for rate relief and more on managing existing balances, including consolidating higher-interest debt into a single, more predictable payment. To see how consolidation could affect monthly costs and repayment timelines, you can use Ratehub’s debt consolidation calculator.

• Read more: Bank of Canada holds key interest rate at 2.25%: What it means for loans 

After years of delays, open banking is expected to take its first meaningful steps in Canada in 2026. As announced in the 2025 federal budget, oversight of the open banking framework will shift from the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada to the Bank of Canada, bringing it under the same regulator responsible for payment modernization and the Real-Time Rail system.

For consumers, this signals a move away from risky workarounds like screen-scraping, where users share login credentials to connect accounts. Instead, Canadians will gradually gain the ability to securely share their financial data with third-party apps and services through regulated digital connections.

While adoption will be slow at first, open banking is expected to increase competition across the financial sector. Consumers may find it easier to compare products, switch accounts, and access tools that offer a more complete picture of their finances. Over time, this added competition could put pressure on banks to offer better rates, lower fees, and more flexible products.

The first phase of open banking is slated to launch in 2026, with more advanced features expected in the years that follow. For Canadians who are already actively comparing financial products and looking for better value, open banking could become an important part of everyday money management.

• Read more: How the 2025 Federal Budget will impact your finances

Cryptocurrency regulation in Canada is set to take a more defined shape in 2026, as Ottawa moves forward with new rules for stablecoins. These digital assets, which are designed to maintain a steady value tied to traditional currencies like the Canadian or U.S. dollar, are increasingly used for fast, low-cost payments rather than speculation.

The federal government has confirmed that stablecoin issuers will be required to hold sufficient reserves to back the coins they issue and meet new standards for risk management, privacy, and security. Approved payment providers will also be allowed to use certain stablecoins for everyday transactions under updated rules to the Retail Payment Activities Act.

For consumers, clearer regulation could translate into greater confidence when using stablecoins, as well as more legitimate options on Canadian crypto platforms. Regulators are also aiming to encourage Canadian dollar–based stablecoins, rather than relying heavily on U.S. dollar versions that dominate the market today.

While stablecoins are unlikely to replace traditional banking in the near term, improved oversight makes it more likely they will play a growing role in digital payments. As costs and convenience continue to drive financial behaviour, Canadians may increasingly view stablecoins as a complementary way to move money, rather than a fringe financial product.

• Read more: The best cryptocurrency exchanges in Canada for 2026 

After several years of rapid change, Canadians are heading into 2026 with more certainty about inflation and interest rates, but ongoing concerns about affordability. While price growth has cooled and borrowing costs have stabilized, higher grocery bills and existing debt loads continue to shape how households manage their money.

Whatever your financial goals are for the year ahead, a more predictable rate environment makes it easier to plan. Comparing financial products, understanding how your loans and investments will perform in a rate-hold environment, and exploring tools that help you manage cash flow can all make a meaningful difference.

As always, building confidence starts with knowing your options. Whether you’re focused on paying down debt, growing savings, or adjusting to new banking tools, taking the time to understand how today’s economic conditions affect your finances can help you make more informed decisions in 2026.

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