Monday Mortgage Update: July 9, 2012

Alyssa Furtado
by Alyssa Furtado July 9, 2012 / No Comments

Mortgage Rules in Canada

The new mortgage rules announced on June 21st by Jim Flaherty take effect today. However, some lenders stopped taking pre-approvals for the old mortgage parameters last Thursday and Friday. Talk to your mortgage provider or broker to learn more about your situation.

With the new rules in place, it is likely that mortgage rates in Canada will continue to stay low for an extended period of time. According to a BMO report, they believe the Bank of Canada (BoC) will hold interest rates until July 2013. BMO’s senior economist Michael Gregory says, “the tightening of the government’s mortgage insurance rules does serve to act like higher interest rates specifically for that sector…so that takes some of the urgency away from the Bank of Canada to adjust rates any time soon.” [1]

Overnight Rate Forecast

Currently the target for the overnight rate, which is set by the Bank of Canada, is at 1.00%, where it has been since September of 2010. Variable mortgage rates are influenced by how the overnight rate moves. Below you will find the latest bank forecasts of when the overnight rate will change and by how much. Three of the four banks predicted the overnight rate would hit 1.50%, an increase of 0.50% from today’s rate, by the end of 2013.

The Overnight Rate Predictions:

BANK

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Q3 2013

Q4 2013

Scotiabank [3]

1.00%

1.00%

1.25%

1.50%

BMO [4]

1.00%

1.00%

1.25%

1.50%

TD [5]

1.25%

1.50%

1.50%

1.50%

RBC [6]

1.25%

1.50%

1.75%

2.00%

 Larger Mortgage Broker Channel

A new proposed federal legislation, if passed, could increase the mortgage broker channel. The new bill would allow provincial credit unions to become federal entities that could accept country-wide deals. In other words, the bill would pave the way for cross-provincial expansion of regional credit unions. However, this new bill will be a positive for brokers as credit unions traditionally use mortgage brokers to break into new markets.

Meridian, the country’s fourth largest credit union did approximately $300 million worth of business with mortgage brokers in 2011.

The legislation would deem federal credit unions ‘banks’ that conduct business on a co-operative basis under the Bank Act. [2]

Where are Canada Mortgage Rates this week?

A history of weekly 5-year fixed mortgage rates and 5-year variable mortgage rates

Canadian Mortgage Rates 2012

Note:  This is simply a small sample size and does not represent the entire market. It does, however, offer some useful insight.

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[1]  The Financial Post

[2] Mortgage Broker News

[3] Scotiabank overnight rate forecast

[4] BMO overnight rate forecast

[5] TD overnight rate forecast

[6] RBC overnight rate forecast