Buyers stay cautious as GTA home sales and prices slide in January
Aditi Gupta, Content Specialist
Buyers stay cautious as GTA home sales and prices slide in January
2026 kicked off with a subdued start in the Greater Toronto Area housing market. According to the latest data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), 3,082 homes were sold across the GTA in January, marking a 19.3% decline compared to the same month last year. The pullback highlights a market still shaped more by confidence than cost, as uncertainty around employment, inflation, and the broader economic outlook continues to weigh on buyer sentiment.
While borrowing costs are well below their 2023 peaks and home prices have moved lower, January’s results suggest that affordability alone hasn’t been enough to bring buyers back in force. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales also edged down from December, reinforcing the sense that the market has entered 2026 in a holding pattern rather than a rebound.
New listings pull back, but choice remains elevated
New listings also declined at the start of the year, reflecting a more cautious approach from sellers alongside hesitant buyers. A total of 10,774 homes were listed on the MLS® System in January 2026, down 13.3% compared to January 2025.
Despite fewer new listings entering the market on an annual basis, supply conditions remain favourable for buyers. On a seasonally adjusted basis, new listings edged slightly higher compared to December, adding to an already well-stocked market shaped by inventory that has accumulated over the past several months. This balance between softer demand and lingering supply continues to give buyers meaningful choice and negotiating power.
Toronto home prices fall below $1-million mark for the first time in five years
With supply levels remaining elevated and buyer confidence still fragile, prices are continuing to adjust gradually. Home prices continued to ease across the Greater Toronto Area in January, extending the downward trend seen through the end of 2025. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark was down 8.0% year over year. The average selling price also fell to $973,289, a 6.5% decline compared to January 2025, and its lowest since January 2021, when it last fell below $1 million.
On a month-over-month basis, both benchmark and average prices trended lower on a seasonally adjusted basis, suggesting that the market is still in the process of resetting rather than stabilizing. For now, softer pricing appears to be acting as a release valve rather than a catalyst.
How different home types are feeling the slowdown
January’s slowdown continued to show up differently across home types and regions, with low-rise homes facing the greatest price pressure, particularly in the City of Toronto.
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board
Detached homes saw notable sales declines across the GTA, with activity especially subdued in Toronto’s 416, where higher price points and cautious buyer sentiment continued to limit demand. In the surrounding 905 region, detached sales also fell sharply year over year, as buyers took advantage of increased choice and pushed harder on price.
Semi-detached sales fell more sharply in Toronto’s 416 than in the 905, but pricing held up far better in the city — down just 0.9% annually versus a 14.5% drop in the 905. Townhouse activity declined at a similar pace across both regions (down 22.6% in the 416 and 23.9% in the 905), though prices softened more meaningfully in the suburbs.
Condo apartments saw the steepest sales declines across the GTA, with activity down 23.6% year over year in Toronto’s 416 and an even sharper 30.3% drop in the 905. Prices also moved lower in both regions, though declines were more pronounced in the suburbs. The average condo price fell 8.6% year over year in the City of Toronto, compared to a 13.0% decline in the 905, where higher supply levels and affordability constraints continued to weigh on demand.
What the 2026 TRREB outlook says about what comes next
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s 2026 Market Outlook suggests the GTA housing market will remain in a holding pattern for much of the year. Elevated supply levels are expected to keep price growth in check, while overall sales activity is forecast to stay within a similar range to the past three years.
TRREB forecasts between 60,000 and 70,000 home sales across the GTA this year, with market activity in the first half expected to closely resemble 2025 levels. Average prices are projected to fall within a range of $1.0 million to $1.03 million, with prices likely to remain lower year over year early in the year before stabilizing in the second half, particularly if buyers begin to absorb elevated inventory levels.
While affordability has improved, confidence remains the missing piece. The outlook shows that homebuying intentions declined by 5% from 2025 to 22% in 2026, even as borrowing costs and prices moved lower. If economic conditions improve and uncertainty eases in the months ahead, pent-up demand — led in part by first-time buyers — could gradually bring more buyers back into the market.
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Aditi Gupta, Content Specialist
Aditi Gupta is a content specialist at Ratehub, with a focus on creating informative content about mortgages.