April Canadian home sales flat as buyers stick to the sidelines

Demand for Canadian real estate remained subdued in April, with sales flat on a month-over-month basis, and down 9.8% compared to the same time period in 2024, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

A total of 44,300 homes sold over the course of the month – a shade lower (0.1%) than in March, which marked a 16-year sales low. However, that marks “a pause” in the deeper month-over-month declines recorded in the first few months of 2025.

That puts today’s market demand on par with the second half of 2022 and the first and third quarters of 2023, says CREA, when home buyers were largely sidelined by rapidly rising interest rates; the Bank of Canada was in the midst of its aggressive 10-part rate hiking cycle at the time, eventually driving its benchmark Overnight Lending Rate to a peak of 5% in July 2023, from the sub-1% lows available during the pandemic.

“At this point, the 2025 Canadian housing story would best be described as a return to the quiet markets we’ve experienced since 2022, with tariff uncertainty taking the place of high interest rates in keeping buyers on the sidelines,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist.

Tariff concerns continue to chill market

He adds that the macro risks are weighing heavily on buyers’ minds; they’re wary of committing to ongoing mortgage payments amid a looking recession. The risk of sellers defaulting on their mortgages is starting to emerge.

“Given the increasing potential for a rough economic patch ahead, the risk going forward will be if an average number of people trying to sell their homes turns into a large number of people who have to sell their homes, and that’s something we have not seen in decades,” he says.

Flat supply tightens market slightly in April

The amount of new supply coming to market also slowed, falling 1% between March and April, though marking a 1.2% year-over-year increase, with a total of 94,234 properties brought to market.

Combined with “flat” sales, that dip has put slight pressure on buyer conditions, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) up to 46.8% in April, from 46.4% in March. This is just a hair shy of an official buyers’ market; CREA defines a ratio of between 45 - 65% as balanced conditions, with below and above signalling buyers’ and sellers’ markets, respectively. According to CREA, the long-term average for the SNLR in April is 54.9%.

In total, there were 182,000 homes listed for sale at the end of April, up 14.3% from the same month in 2024. Inventories were especially high in BC and Ontario, offsetting normalizing supply levels in other markets. That amounts to a total of 5.1 months of inventory, which CREA says is largely in line with the long-term average.

Average Canadian home price down 3.9%

Given lacklustre sales and rising supply, the average Canadian home price fell further in April, down 3.9% year over year to $679,866. The MLS Home Price Index, which measures the most typical home sold, with the high and low extremes stripped out, fell 1.2% from April, and 3.6% on a yearly basis.

What’s next for the Canadian housing market?

The factors holding home buyers back are largely psychological; the ongoing tariff narrative continues to sow deep economic unease, and the effects are starting to show up in the data. Business investment is dropping, supply chain snarls are hiking prices,  and job losses are appearing amid tariff-sensitive industries such as manufacturing. 

Against this backdrop, it’s no wonder buyers are hesitant to make a large financial decision – despite the fact that lower mortgage rates and softening prices are making for some of the best affordability conditions seen in some time. 

While the mortgage rate outlook is still uncertain, economists largely agree that the Bank of Canada is likely to cut interest rates twice more this year, to help counter the effects of tariffs on the Canadian economy. However, rapidly rising inflation as a result of higher prices, could put future lower variable rates at risk. Bond yields, which underpin the pricing for fixed mortgage rates, have been largely unchanged since mid-April, as investors have grown increasingly wary of US-government-backed bonds. That in turn has put a floor under Government of Canada bonds, restraining lenders from passing along further fixed-rate discounts.

Upcoming Canadian inflation and GDP reports will provide further guidance on whether the BoC will ease rates further – and whether borrowing cost relief is on the horizon for mortgage shoppers.

Also read:

• Renewing your five-year mortgage term? Expect to pay 15% more per month
• April GTA home sales down 23% as uncertain buyers stick to the sidelines
• Canadian March home sales fall to 16-year low amid tariff fears
• Lower mortgage rates made it easier to buy a home in March
• Bank of Canada holds target interest rate at 2.75% in April 2025 announcement