Notable News of the Week: April 27, 2012


This week in mortgage and housing news, Canada’s Finance Minister announced a change for the CMHC which should lead to a tightening of mortgage credit. Also, we are seeing record levels of condo activity in a city other than Vancouver and Toronto.

New Mortgage Changes From Jim Flaherty

Canada’s Finance Minister, Jim Flaherty made headlines this week when he announced that Ottawa would once again step into housing market regulations in an effort to cool the market.

The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), which was formerly under the jurisdiction of the minister responsible for Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, will now fall under the high standards of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OFSI). Originally, the CMHC was intended to assist social housing, but according to Mr. Flaherty, “[they] evolved into a key pillar of Canada’s overall housing market, providing government backing to lenders…on high leverage mortgages.”

Initially, the CMHC guarantee was to help stabilize the housing market during the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 by encouraging the banks to keep lending. But that same measure that helped Canada through the credit squeeze is now contributing to today’s overheated housing market. The Toronto Star reports that the CMHC now insures nearly 50% of Canada’s mortgage industry – that’s $550 billion in outstanding residential mortgage credit.

The big question is: Will this work?

Having OFSI oversee the CMHC’s jurisdiction isn’t exactly a ground-shaking move, but according to The Financial Post, the government’s moves are designed for a soft landing as opposed to a hard-stop with direct economic consquences.

“The idea is that by gradually tightening up lending standards around CMHC insured mortgages, the ‘froth’ will be removed from the market and equilibrium will return.”

However, they contend that the Canadian housing market is anything but normal. Nonetheless, Ben Rabidoux for Macleans writes, “Putting CMHC into OSFI hands may well represent a greater tightening of credit than Flaherty could have done by shortening amortization lengths or increasing down payments.“ He believes significant changes will happen.
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What are blended mortgages?

Like the look of a lower mortgage rate? Avoid the penalty to break your current mortgage and get a “blended rate”

Dara Fahy is a leading mortgage planner with The Mortgage Centre Citywide in British Columbia. You can view his BC mortgage rates on RateHub.ca.

Given the current low rate environment, many people are inquiring about how to lower their current mortgage costs. If you’re one of the many that took a fixed rate back in 2008 or 2009, you are likely in the range of 4 to 5% or even higher and you’re stuck with it for one or two more years. This is frustrating when current rates are being offered as low as 3.29% for a new 5-year fixed term.

Typically, the mortgage penalties you incur to break your mortgage are set up as the greater of three months interest or Interest Rate Differential (essentially, the difference between your mortgage rate and the current rate your bank is offering for the same term you have remaining). This is in place to avoid people constantly breaking existing mortgages to go to a better rate and this IRD penalty will typically negate any savings from doing so. However, there is what I like to call a “sweet spot”, where your rate is not high enough to trigger IRD and only three months interest penalty applies. At the time I am writing this, I find that rate to be around 3.89%.
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50% of Canadians prefer fixed rate mortgages today

The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) is one of the biggest banks in Canada, controlling 13.6% of Canada’s $1.1 trillion dollar mortgage market. Recently, CIBC conducted a poll of over 1000 people across the nation asking for opinions on mortgages. The results yielded a few interesting points.

A)  50% of Canadians said they would choose a fixed rate mortgage today

The spread between fixed and variable rates have shrunk considerably from April 2011 to April 2012 which helps explains why this number is up 11% from last year’s results. Let’s examine how the spread between discounted 5-year fixed rates and 5-year variable rates have changed over the last year.*

Date

5-year fixed rates

5-year variable rates

The spread in BPS

April 2011

3.82%

2.10%

172

April 2012

3.19%

2.85%

34

*data sourced from Ratehub.ca

A year ago today, the 5-year variable rate was largely favourable to its fixed counterpart due to the large spread. This is a far different cry from how the rates stack up against each other today, where the spread has shrunk to 34 basis points. Plus, it is widely predicted interest rates will increase in the next year (more on that below).
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Monday Mortgage Update: April 23, 2012

The Bank of Canada hints at raising interest rates

Last week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept the key interest rate at 1.00%, but Mark Carney hinted that Ottawa may start raising rates. The BoC Governor’s exact words were, “In light of the reduced slack in the economy and firmer underlying inflation, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate.” [1]

The reduced “slack” in the economy is a another way of saying the economy is improving, giving the bank a little more wiggle room to act on interest rates.

These recent comments have caused one major bank to alter their key interest rate (also called the overnight rate) outlook. According to BMO, the Bank of Canada will raise the key interest rate as early as January 2013. And Avery Shenfeld of CIBC believes that the BoC will have three rate hikes of 0.25%, raising the overnight rate to 1.75% before pausing; although, he did not specify when these hikes would occur.

The overnight rate is important to track because they drive variable mortgage rates. So, an increase in the overnight rate would lead to an increase in variable interest rates.

Here is a great chart put together by Sudip Adhikari of The Canadian Mortgage Advisor detailing the key interest rate outlook by BMO, RBC, and TD.

*note that BMO recently changed their outlook to an overnight rate hike by January 2013.

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Notable News of the Week: April 20, 2012

This is your weekly mortgage and housing news update. There were plenty of headlines covering the Toronto housing market and most of it carried a negative tone, which doesn’t reflect well for Canada’s biggest market.

photo by Brennan Valenzuela

Toronto Housing Market

The adjective that most people use to describe the Toronto housing market is heated. This is especially true for the condo market which continues to see the average price increase while the average unit size decreases. Plus, the glutton of new construction in the pipeline leads to fears of massive over-supply, which have many experts calling for a condo market crash.

The Financial Post believes Toronto’s overheated market is unsustainable because the rest of Canada has been experiencing home price moderation, whereas home buyers in Toronto continue to over-spend for their properties. Over the past year, only Toronto has shown price gains (%) in double-digit territory at 10.5%. TD Bank believes Canadian home prices are 10-15% above a sustainable level.

Rundown of the numbers:

  • 20%  The number that the Toronto market accounts for within the Canadian housing market
  • 36.1% The jump in new mutli-family home construction (mostly condos) from Q1 2011 to Q1            2012
  • $360,892 The average price of a condo in Downtown Toronto
  • 17%  Percentage of Torontonians willing to pay more than $600/month in condo fees

‘The Donald’ himself made an appearance in Hogtown (that’s Trump, not Duck) to officially cut the ribbon for his Trump International Hotel and Residences tower in downtown.  The Toronto Star has reported over a dozen investors are refusing to pay the final closing costs and assume ownership of their units, claiming these investments no longer make financial sense.
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Reverse mortgages are on the rise

Kim O’Rourke-Nelson of Family Lending talks about why reverse mortgages are making waves in the retirement community in the following guest article. You can view Family Lending’s Ontario mortgage rates on RateHub.ca.

Has the recent economic crash thrown a wrench into your retirement plans? Well, you’re not alone. As more boomers hit retirement age, the question of cash flow and financial stability is becoming more and more problematic. The more financially unprepared these individuals are for retirement, the more likely they’ll need to sell their home in order to avoid the pinch.

Seniors today are living longer, spending more, and saving less. For many boomers, their homes are the only viable source of equity available to leverage. Traditionally, the easiest way for seniors to unlock this asset was to either sell their property or apply for a home equity line of credit (HELOC). But now, thanks to reverse mortgage products, cash-poor seniors can stay in their home and use the property’s equity to access a structured continuous flow of cash, much like a pension.
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Interest rate announcement brings about no changes (once again)

We could almost re-post the same blog every time there is an interest rate announcement because the Bank of Canada has been repeating itself since September 2010, keeping the key interest rate at 1%. Often citing variations on the same themes – the economic woes of Europe and the US, the Canadian dollar, and the direction of the US Federal Reserve – the Bank says it is constrained by external economies in its decision-making.

The problem is cheap debt has pushed Canadians into a buying frenzy that has many concerned about the record-breaking level of household debt. On the one hand, the bank would like to discourage over-consumption but, on the other, its hands are tied.

In the words of Douglas Porter of BMO Capital Markets “unfortunately they face this eternal tension of a healthy domestic economy and a shaky external environment.”

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty similarly has not taken on the responsibility of tackling the household debt problem (yet) by tightening mortgage lending standards – as many thought he would – and so the Bank of Canada may be forced to take action soon by raising the key interest rate later this year.

For now, variable mortgage holders can continue to reap the benefits of the low interest rate to which their financing costs are based on.

 

Monday Mortgage Update: April 16, 2012

photo by Brennan ValenzuelaMost Government of Canada (GoC) bond yields took a small dip by the end of last week, including the 5-year GoC benchmark bond yields which fell seven basis points (bps). The opposite occurred with 5-year fixed mortgage rates as the lowest rate found on Ratehub.ca rose five bps. The lowest 5-year variable rate continues to hover between 2.75% and 2.85% in 2012.

Tomorrow the Bank of Canada will make its third interest rate announcement of 2012 and it is widely expected that they won’t hike interest rates. What many industry experts are expecting is the BoC to change their tone amid a relatively brighter economic outlook. According to Avery Shenfeld, the chief economist for CIBC World Markets, “The Bank of Canada will sound slightly more hawkish in projecting a narrower output gap with an earlier date to close it, and a bit less fear of a financial panic originating in Europe.” Mr. Shenfeld then goes on to say, “It’s too early to either hike rates or sound a clear warning of an upcoming move…nonetheless, this will likely facilitate upside pressure for rates.”[1]
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Notable News of the Week: April 13, 2012

Last week, there was no Friday mortgage news recap due to Good Friday, but we hope everybody had wonderful long weekend. News from this week: the housing market in Toronto took a couple of negative hits due to their condo over-production and reports of poor build quality.

The condo market in Toronto is poised for a cooldownThe Toronto Star

High-rise construction in Toronto hasn’t slowed in 2012 and is actually up 36% from the first quarter of last year. We’re starting to see the effects of over-supply affecting prices. Over the past year, Toronto condo prices have slightly increased at 3%, which is down 7% from last year’s price growth mark.
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